Avoiding the X

Michael Blake
2 hours ago
5 min read

Executive Protection in Politically Sensitive Environments

By Michael Blake

Contributor: Ellis Atkinson

When moving High Net Worth (HNW) clients—or securing venues—near politically sensitive zones such as protests, demonstrations, or ICE activity, success is defined by what doesn’t happen.

No viral clip.No confrontation.No compromised movement.

At Offshore Kinetics, our approach to executive protection is rooted in disciplined advance work, intelligence-led decision making, and professional restraint. Whether operating domestically or abroad, we teach one consistent principle: the best protective outcome is the one the principal never notices.

Avoiding the X is not a suggestion. It is a requirement. The moment you are reacting instead of anticipating, you are already behind the curve.

The Prime Directive: Don’t Be There When It Happens

Every protest has gravity. Crowds grow. Emotions escalate. Resources thin—or disappear entirely. Your job is not to dominate the environment—it is to never intersect with it.

Crowds don’t announce when they turn.

That reality makes advance work non-negotiable.

Core Priorities Near Civil Unrest

Deep Advance WorkAdvance is not a checklist item—it is the mission. Identify likely protest zones, rally points, march routes, and friction areas before the principal ever leaves the residence. If your movement intersects with a protest, the advance has already failed.

Active OSINTReal-time social media monitoring is your earliest warning system. Track organizers, affiliated groups, messaging tone, calls to action, and route changes continuously. OSINT is not static. If it isn’t live, it isn’t useful.Intelligence is only valuable if it informs movement decisions early enough to avoid contact entirely.

Primary & Alternate RoutesEvery movement requires a primary route, a hard alternate, and a tertiary option with clear decision points. If your primary route places you near unrest, the plan is already compromised. Time on target equals exposure.

Conflict De-escalationIf compromised, your objective is a quiet, rapid exit—not confrontation, not posture, not ego. If you’re explaining your plan in the moment, you’re already late.

The Data Confirms the Risk Curve

Public-domain reporting and after-action analysis across major U.S. metro areas reinforce a consistent trend: protest activity is more frequent, more fluid, and more reactive than in previous years.

Spontaneous gatherings can scale from dozens to hundreds in under 30 minutes once online calls to action circulate. Journalists, observers, and perceived authority figures are often targeted once crowds shift from expressive to oppositional behavior. During these periods, emergency response times routinely degrade due to access denial, rerouting, or resource saturation.

The implication for protective professionals is clear: by the time a crowd is visible on the street, your maneuver window is already closing. Advance work and OSINT must stay ahead of the environment—not chase it.

Field Perspective: Civil Unrest Operations

By Ellis Atkinson

Civil unrest details are, in my opinion, one of the most dangerous security operations you can conduct stateside.

You will not have reliable emergency services. You will not have cooperative venue staff. You will not have secure access control. And you will be outnumbered—every time.

Protectee Coaching Is Non-Negotiable

It is appropriate—and necessary—to coach your protectee before movement.

Mobility is survival. I evaluate footwear prior to entering unrest-adjacent environments and request that female reporters do not wear high heels. Functional clothing matters. Blending, moving, and disengaging matter more than appearance.

It is equally important to establish rendezvous points in the area of operations with all members of a news or camera crew. Every individual needs to know where to go when movement breaks down.

Your protectee is part of the security plan whether they realize it or not.

Time Is the Enemy

Your only winning move is rapid, deliberate exfil—before the environment forces your hand.

The longer you remain, the more attention you draw, the more the crowd grows, and the closer you get to being fixed, flanked, and overwhelmed. Staying “to finish the assignment” is how professionals become part of the problem instead of the solution.

Understanding Crowd Psychology

Crowds are emotional systems, not rational ones. They pivot quickly and feed on momentum. Constant assessment is mandatory:

Mood shifts and chant changes
Presence of agitators
Masking and uniformity
Directional flow, choke points, and bottlenecks

Once hostility turns toward observers, reporters, or perceived authority figures, your exit window narrows rapidly.

Know the Opposition

OSINT is critical for identifying who is organizing a protest, their ideological leanings, their history and propensity for violence, and their planned routes and rally points.

Organizations with a history of violence often exercise strong operational security and counterintelligence. They are suspicious of observers, hostile toward media, and quick to identify anyone they perceive as aligned with authority.

Recent Case Patterns (Public Domain)

Mobility Failure → Forced ShieldingIn multiple recent incidents, media teams operating near demonstrations were rapidly isolated when crowd movement shifted. Restrictive footwear prevented pace matching, forcing protective teams into unplanned physical shielding instead of disengagement—dramatically increasing exposure.

OSINT Lag → Shelter-in-PlaceHNW movement intersected a spontaneous rally after organizers altered routes in real time. Delayed OSINT recognition eliminated alternate routing options, resulting in an extended shelter-in-place and loss of operational control.

Early OSINT → Clean DivertAdvance teams detected online calls to converge at a transit hub well ahead of movement. The schedule was adjusted, routing was diverted to a tertiary option, and the principal never knew a risk existed.Silent avoidance is not luck—it is disciplined preparation.

Kit Considerations for Civil Unrest Details

Equipment should support movement, survival, and disengagement—not prolonged engagement.

Recommended considerations include:

IFAK
Folding knife
High-output flashlight with strobe capability, durable enough for impact use
Respirator for yourself and protectees
- Camera crews may need to carry spares
Water with baby shampoo solution (soft-cap bottle for rapid application)
Cloth or microfiber rags
Irritant spray

Every item must earn its place by supporting escape.

In executive protection, success is invisible.

If you’re improvising in front of a crowd, you’re already late. If you’re explaining why you pushed through a protest, the opportunity to avoid it has already passed.

At Offshore Kinetics, we train professionals to operate ahead of the problem—because the best protective outcome is the one the principal never notices.

That is the standard.

About the Authors

Michael BlakeMichael Blake is a veteran executive protection professional and the founder of Offshore Kinetics. He brings decades of experience operating in high-risk, politically sensitive, and non-permissive environments, with a focus on advance operations, intelligence-driven risk mitigation, and professional standards in executive protection.

Ellis AtkinsonEllis Atkinson is the owner of Atkinson Group Protective Services, based in Seattle, Washington. He has extensive experience infilling and exfilling protectees into civil unrest zones across the western United States and specializes in crowd dynamics, rapid exfiltration, and unrest-adjacent protective operations.